Integrated urban evolutionary modeling

Cellular automata models have proved rather popular as frameworks for simulating the physical growth of cities. Yet their brief history has been marked by a lack of application to real policy contexts, notwithstanding their obvious relevance to topical problems such as urban sprawl. Traditional urban models which emphasize transportation and demography continue to prevail despite their limitations in simulating realistic urban dynamics. To make progress, it is necessary to link CA models to these more traditional forms, focusing on the explicit simulation of the socio-economic attributes of land use activities as well as spatial interaction. There are several ways of tackling this but all are based on integration using various forms of strong and loose coupling which enable generically different models to be connected. Such integration covers many different features of urban simulation from data and software integration to internet operation, from interposing demand with the supply of urban land to enabling growth, location, and distributive mechanisms within such models to be reconciled. Here we will focus on developin

Simulating emergent urban form: desakota in China

We propose that the emergent phenomenon know as ?desakota?, the rapidurbanization of densely populated rural populations in the newlydeveloped world, particularly China, can be simulated using agent-basedmodels which combine both local and global features. We argue thatdeskota represents a surprising and unusual form of urbanization wellmatchedto processes of land development that are driven from the bottomup but moderated by the higher-level macro economy. We develop asimple logic which links local household reform to global urban reform,translating these ideas into a model structure which reflects these twoscales. Our model first determines the rate of growth of different spatialaggregates using linear statistical analysis. It then allocates this growth tothe local level using developer agents who determine the transformation ormutation of rural households to urban pursuits based on local land costs,accessibilities, and growth management practices. The model is applied todesakota development in the Suzhou region between 1990 and 2000. Weshow how the global rates of change predicted at the township level in theWuxian City region surrounding Suzhou are tempered by localtransformations of rural to urban land uses which we predict using cellularautomata rules. The model, which is implemented in the RePast 3software, is validated using a blend of data taken from remote sensing andgovernment statistical sources. It represents an example of generativesocial science that fuses plausible behavior with formalized logics matchedagainst empirical evidence, essential in showing how novel patterns ofurbanization such as desakota emerge

Visualization in spatial modeling

This chapter deals with issues arising from a central theme in contemporary computer modeling - visualization. We first tie visualization to varieties of modeling along the continuum from iconic to symbolic and then focus on the notion that our models are so intrinsically complex that there are many different types of visualization that might be developed in their understanding and implementation. This focuses the debate on the very way of 'doing science' in that patterns and processes of any complexity can be better understood through visualizing the data, the simulations, and the outcomes that such models generate. As we have grown more sensitive to the problem of complexity in all systems, we are more aware that the twin goals of parsimony and verifiability which have dominated scientific theory since the 'Enlightenment' are up for grabs: good theories and models must 'look right' despite what our statistics and causal logics tell us. Visualization is the cutting edge of this new way of thinking about science but its styles vary enormously with context. Here we define three varieties: visualization of complicated systems to make things simple or at least explicable, which is the role of pedagogy; visualization to explore unanticipated outcomes and to refine processes that interact in unanticipated ways; and visualization to enable end users with no prior understanding of the science but a deep understanding of the problem to engage in using models for prediction, prescription, and control. We illustrate these themes with a model of an agricultural market which is the basis of modern urban economics - the von Thünen model of land rent and density; a model of urban development based on interacting spatial and temporal processes of land development - the DUEM model; and a pedestrian model of human movement at the fine scale where control of such movements to meet standards of public safety is intrinsically part of the model about which the controllers know intimately. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2006

Dynamics of urban sprawl

This paper introduces a framework for understanding the dynamics of urban growth,particularly the continuing problem of urban sprawl. The models we present are based on transitions from vacant land to established development. We propose that the essential mechanism of transition is analogous to the way an epidemic is generated within a susceptible population, with waves of development being generated from the conversion of available land to new development and redevelopment through the aging process. We first outline the standard aggregate model in differential equation form, showing how different variants (including logistic, exponential, predator-prey models) can be derived for various urban growth situations. We then generalize the model to a spatial system and show how sprawl can be conceived as a process of both interaction/reaction and diffusion. We operationalize the model as a cellular automata (CA) which implies that diffusion is entirely local, and we then illustrate how waves of development and redevelopment characterizing both sprawl and aging of the existing urban stock, can be simulated.Finally we show how the model can be adapted to a real urban situation - the AnnArbor area in Eastern Michigan - where we demonstrate how waves of development are absorbed and modified by particular historical contingencies associated with the re-existing urban structure

Recent Trends in Hospitalization for Acute Myocardial Infarction in Beijing: Increasing Overall Burden and a Transition From ST-Segment Elevation to Non-ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction in a Population-Based Study

Comparable data on trends of hospitalization rates for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non-STEMI (NSTEMI) remain unavailable in representative Asian populations.To examine the temporal trends of hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and its subtypes in Beijing.Patients hospitalized for AMI in Beijing from January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2012 were identified from the validated Hospital Discharge Information System. Trends in hospitalization rates, in-hospital mortality, length of stay (LOS), and hospitalization costs were analyzed by regression models for total AMI and for STEMI and NSTEMI separately. In total, 77,943 patients were admitted for AMI in Beijing during the 6 years, among whom 67.5% were males and 62.4% had STEMI. During the period, the rate of AMI hospitalization per 100,000 population increased by 31.2% (from 55.8 to 73.3 per 100,000 population) after age standardization, with a slight decrease in STEMI but a 3-fold increase in NSTEMI. The ratio of STEMI to NSTEMI decreased dramatically from 6.5:1.0 to 1.3:1.0. The age-standardized in-hospital mortality decreased from 11.2% to 8.6%, with a significant decreasing trend evident for STEMI in males and females (P < 0.001) and for NSTEMI in males (P = 0.02). The rate of percutaneous coronary intervention increased from 28.7% to 55.6% among STEMI patients. The total cost for AMI hospitalization increased by 56.8% after adjusting for inflation, although the LOS decreased by 1 day.The hospitalization burden for AMI has been increasing in Beijing with a transition from STEMI to NSTEMI. Diverse temporal trends in AMI subtypes from the unselected "real-world" data in Beijing may help to guide the management of AMI in China and other developing countries

Potential ring of Dirac nodes in a new polymorph of Ca3_3P2_2

We report the crystal structure of a new polymorph of Ca$_3$P$_2$, and an analysis of its electronic structure. The crystal structure was determined through Rietveld refinements of powder synchrotron x-ray diffraction data. Ca$_3$P$_2$ is found to be a variant of the Mn$_5$Si$_3$ structure type, with a Ca ion deficiency compared to the ideal 5:3 stoichiometry to yield a charge-balanced compound. We also report the observation of a secondary phase, Ca$_5$P$_3$H, in which the Ca and P sites are fully occupied and the presence of interstitial hydride ions creates a closed-shell electron-precise compound. We show via electronic structure calculations of Ca$_3$P$_2$ that the compound is stabilized by a gap in the density of states compared to the hypothetical compound Ca$_5$P$_3$. Moreover, the calculated band structure of Ca$_3$P$_2$ indicates that it should be a three-dimensional Dirac semimetal with a highly unusual ring of Dirac nodes at the Fermi level. The Dirac states are protected against gap opening by a mirror plane in a manner analogous to graphene. The results suggest that further study of the electronic properties of Ca$_3$P$_2$ will be of interest